Outcome prediction of methadone poisoning in the United States: implications of machine learning in the National Poison Data System (NPDS)

Methadone is an opioid receptor agonist with a high potential for abuse. The current study aimed to compare different machine learning models to predict the outcomes following methadone poisoning. This six-year retrospective longitudinal study utilizes National Poison Data System (NPDS) data. The severity of outcomes was derived from the NPDS Coding Manual. Our database was divided into training (70%) and test (30%) sets. We used a light gradient boosting machine (LGBM), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), random forest (RF), and logistic regression (LR) to predict the outcomes of methadone poisoning. A total of 3847 patients with methadone exposures were included. Our results demonstrated that machine learning models conferred high accuracy and reliability in determining the outcomes of methadone poisoning cases. The performance evaluation showed all models had high accuracy, precision, specificity, recall, and F1-score values. All models could reach high specificity (more than 96%) and high precision (80% or more) for predicting major outcomes. The models could also achieve a high sensitivity to predict minor outcomes. Finally, the accuracy of all models was about 75%. However, XGBoost and LGBM models achieved the best performance among all models. This study showcased the accuracy and reliability of machine learning models in the outcome prediction of methadone poisoning.