Modeling of Ground Source Heat Pump Systems and Their Operation Under Uncertainties

This paper presents three mathematical formulations to represent uncertainties for the dispatch of aggregated Ground Source Heat Pumps (GSHPs). Model Predictive Control (MPC) and Monte Carlo Simulations (MCS) approaches are first discussed, based on an existing deterministic model that represents the operation and participation of the aggregator in electricity markets, to account for uncertainties in the electricity prices and ambient temperatures on the dispatch of aggregated GSHP systems. A novel Robust Optimization (RO) approach is then proposed and developed, and all the methods are validated, analyzed, and compared using a realistic test system. It is shown that the proposed RO approach is computationally efficient with respect to the MPC and MCS approaches, and properly represents the considered uncertainties, demonstrating the advantage of the presented RO technique for GSHP dispatch by aggregators.