Uncovering the primary drivers of regional variability in the impact of climate change on wheat yields in China

Responses of wheat yield in different regions to separate and joint changes in mean temperature (Tmean), precipitation (Prec), and solar radiation (Rad) are the foundation for sustainable development under climate change; however, these remain uncertain. Here, we quantified the response of wheat yield variation to changes in Tmean, Prec, and Rad by building multiple regression models, de-trending analysis, and MK trend tests. Multi-site meteorological data was obtained from different wheat growing areas and corresponding wheat yield data from provinces. Our findings showed that the effects of different climatic elements on wheat yield are spatially heterogeneous by region, and the combined effects of climatic elements are higher than those of single elements. Climate change caused an increase of 1% and 4.52% in winter and winter-spring wheat areas, respectively, and a loss of 3.72% in spring wheat areas. In addition, the effect of single meteorological factors on wheat yield varied depending on their rate of change. Rad and Prec are the main drivers of wheat yield variability; in winter, spring and winter-spring wheat areas, Rad significantly impacted wheat yield by 0.89%, −1.18%, and 2.46%, respectively, and Prec caused changes of −0.18%, −1.54%, and 1.33%, respectively. Considering normal and extreme climate fluctuations, we found that the contribution of climate change to wheat yield changes in different wheat-growing regions reached 26.1%, 18.6%, and 16.7%, respectively. Our results indicate that the overall climatic conditions in the spring wheat region are moving in an unfavourable direction, while Prec variability has become the main limiting factor for wheat production in the current winter and winter-spring wheat regions. These comprehensive and detailed findings provide a reference for the development of more accurate adaptation strategies and management measures in different regions. Going forward, the results of this study can be better applied to the development of region-specific climate-smart agricultural practices and extended to other crops and regions to better understand the broader impacts of climate change on global food security.