Historical Pathogen-Driven Selection May Contribute to Contemporary Ethnic Difference in Bladder Cancer Susceptibility

BACKGROUND: The rationale for ethnic differences in bladder cancer (BCa) susceptibility is an important open question. In this study, we raised the hypothesis that the APOBEC3-rs1014971 variant associated with BCa risk and APOBEC-mutagenesis probably contribute to ethnic differences. METHODS: We calculated the ethnicity-stratified 5-year age-adjusted incidence rates of BCa using the US SEER database. We performed somatic mutational-signature analyses and compared the APOBEC-related mutational contribution across BCa tumors in patients of different ethnicities. We analyzed the allele frequency distribution of APOBEC3-related rs1014971 in contemporary populations of different ethnicities and in ancient human genomes. We also analyzed the natural selection profiles and ages of the investigated SNPs. RESULTS: We validated the ethnic difference in BCa risk using US SEER data, revealing Caucasians to be at >2-fold greater risk than Asians / Pacific islanders. In contemporary populations, we observed a coherent ethnic distribution in terms not only of the allele frequency of APOBEC3-related rs1014971, but also the mutational contribution of APOBEC-mediated mutagenesis in BCa tumors. Population genetics and ancient genome analyses further suggested that the diverse ethnic distribution of rs1014971 could be rooted in human evolution. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible that APOBEC3-related rs1014971 is involved in the different BCa incidence across ethnic groups, and this difference is potentially derived from human evolution. Our findings suggested an evolutionary link between contemporary population-level variations in malignancy susceptibility and pathogen-driven selection in the past, not unlike previously reported cases of certain autoimmune and metabolic disorders.