Relation of changes in PEF and FEV1 in exercise challenge in children

Decrease in forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) of 10% or 15% in exercise challenge test is considered diagnostic for asthma, but a decrease of 15% in peak expiratory flow (PEF) is recommended as an alternative. Our aim was to assess the accuracy of different PEF cut-off points in comparison to FEV1.We retrospectively studied 326 free running exercise challenge tests with spirometry in children 6-16 years old. FEV1 and PEF were measured before and 2, 5, 10 and 15 min after exercise. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis, sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV) and K-coefficient were used to analyse how decrease in PEF predicts decrease of 10% or 15% in FEV1.In the ROC analysis, areas under the curve were 0.851 (p < 0.001) and 0.921 (p < 0.001) for PEF decrease to predict a 10% and 15% decrease in FEV1, respectively. The agreement between changes in PEF and FEV1 varied from slight to substantial (K values of 0.199-0.680) depending on the cut-points. Lower cut-off for decrease in PEF had higher sensitivity and NPV, while higher cut-off values had better specificity and PPV. Decrease of 20% and 25% in PEF seemed to be the best cut-offs for detecting 10% and 15% decrease in FEV1, respectively. Still, a fifth of the positive findings based on PEF were false.Change in PEF is not a precise predictor of change in FEV1 in exercise test. The currently recommended cut-point of 15% decrease in PEF seems to be too low and leads to high false positive rate.