Prospective Study of Risk Factors for Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation After Cardiac Surgery

Introduction: To examine risk factors for new-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) after cardiac surgery.Methods: Patients enrolled in the Cardiothoracic Surgical Trials Network multicenter, randomized trial of rate control versus rhythm control for POAF were included. Predictors of POAF were determined using multivariable logistic regression.Results: Among the 2104 patients who were enrolled preoperatively, 695 developed POAF (33.0%). Rates of POAF were 28.1% after isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), 33.7% after isolated valve repair or replacement, and 47.3% after CABG plus valve repair or replacement. Baseline characteristics associated with an increased risk of POAF identified on multivariable analysis included older age (odds ratio [OR] 1.57; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.42-1.73, per 10 y), White race or non-Hispanic ethnicity (OR 1.52; CI: 1.11-2.07), history of heart failure (OR 1.55; CI: 1.16-2.08), and history of hypothyroidism (OR 1.42; CI 1.04-1.94). The type of cardiac procedure was associated with an increased risk of POAF with both isolated valve repair or replacement (OR 1.33, CI 1.08-1.64) and combined CABG plus valve repair or replacement (OR 1.64, CI 1.24-2.17) having increased risk of POAF compared to isolated CABG. No preoperative cardiac medication was associated with POAF.Conclusions: In this prospective cohort of patients, older age, a history of hypothyroidism, a history of heart failure, and valve repair or replacement, with or without CABG, and White non-Hispanic race were associated with an increased risk of POAF.(c) 2023 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.