Pandemic resilience planning: NPI measures and Covid-19 impacts in UK, Germany, and Italy

In the absence of vaccines and antiviral medication or until a worldwide vaccine is distributed, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), else known by precautionary measures, implemented in response to emerging epidemic respiratory viruses are the only option available to delay and moderate the spread of the virus in a population. Almost all NPI measures relate to mega urban policies in dealing with the movement and gathering of population in urban areas and public establishments. These precautionary measures are known to vary in scale of application, as some may be performed on the national scale while others are only practiced in certain regions or cities. Therefore, this study is an attempt to assess the effectiveness of such measures according to their level of practice, duration, and stringency score (degree of application), in curbing the aggressive spread of covid-19, and thus formulate possible urban policies for the future planning of pandemic resilient cities. Since Europe is known to be one of the hardly hit regions, this research targeted three of its worst infested countries, Germany, Italy, and the UK. This study is structured to address the three main pandemic waves from the first announcement of the pandemic attack in January 2020 to March 2021. This method is followed to identify the most effective measures to counter a pandemic attack and determine their optimal scale of implementation. Findings suggest that less strict measures and smaller implementation scales were more effective in stemming the spread of COVID-19 compared to other measures that were economically and socially burdensome. Timing also played a crucial role, as implementing stricter measures early on in a pandemic proved beneficial in reducing its overall impact. Therefore, it is advisable to prioritize stringent interventions in the initial phases of a pandemic and then transition to less strict and localized measures to support the resilience of urban societies in the face of future outbreaks. In alignment with these recommendations, this research significantly advances the fields of pandemic preparedness and urban policies. By revealing the dynamic nature of disease control strategies and the need for adaptability, it provides a robust theoretical foundation for crafting more effective public health and urban policies during future outbreaks.