Multi-Slice CT Features Predict Pathological Risk Classification in Gastric Stromal Tumors Larger Than 2 cm: A Retrospective Study

Background: The Armed Forces Institute of Pathology (AFIP) had higher accuracy and reliability in prognostic assessment and treatment strategies for patients with gastric stromal tumors (GSTs). The AFIP classification is frequently used in clinical applications. But the risk classification is only available for patients who are previously untreated and received complete resection. We aimed to investigate the feasibility of multi-slice MSCT features of GSTs in predicting AFIP risk classification preoperatively. Methods: The clinical data and MSCT features of 424 patients with solitary GSTs were retrospectively reviewed. According to pathological AFIP risk criteria, 424 GSTs were divided into a low-risk group (n = 282), a moderate-risk group (n = 72), and a high-risk group (n = 70). The clinical data and MSCT features of GSTs were compared among the three groups. Those variables (p < 0.05) in the univariate analysis were included in the multivariate analysis. The nomogram was created using the rms package. Results: We found significant differences in the tumor location, morphology, necrosis, ulceration, growth pattern, feeding artery, vascular-like enhancement, fat-positive signs around GSTs, CT value in the venous phase, CT value increment in the venous phase, longest diameter, and maximum short diameter (all p < 0.05). Two nomogram models were successfully constructed to predict the risk of GSTs. Low- vs. high-risk group: the independent risk factors of high-risk GSTs included the location, ulceration, and longest diameter. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the prediction model was 0.911 (95% CI: 0.872-0.951), and the sensitivity and specificity were 80.0% and 89.0%, respectively. Moderate- vs. high-risk group: the morphology, necrosis, and feeding artery were independent risk factors of a high risk of GSTs, with an AUC value of 0.826 (95% CI: 0.759-0.893), and the sensitivity and specificity were 85.7% and 70.8%, respectively. Conclusions: The MSCT features of GSTs and the nomogram model have great practical value in predicting pathological AFIP risk classification between high-risk and non-high-risk groups before surgery.