Multi-Temporal Change of LULC and Its Impact on Carbon Storage in Jiangsu Coastal, China

Coastal is the coupling of socio-economic and fragile ecosystems area existing development and protection problems, with lots of reserve land resources (i.e., bottomland and tidal flats). Analyzing and predicting the carbon storage changes caused by land use/land cover (LULC) on the Jiangsu coast were critical for revealing the potential problems of land surface changes and sustainable development. Then, we utilized the single dynamic degree and transfer in/out contribution, exploring the characteristics of LULC change in the study area from 1980 to 2018. Using the InVEST model, PLUS-LEAS model, and PLUS-Markov chain module, we assessed the spatiotemporal of the study area at the county level to reveal the LULC change strategy and driving factor contribution, as well as the composition of LULC and carbon storage in 2036. The results show that the LULC structure in the study area significantly changed from 1980 to 2018, in which the tidal flat and high coverage grassland decreased by 552.84 km2 and 383.71 km2 while the reservoir ponds and urban residential land increased by 1210.69 km2 and 101.70 km2. The major driving factor of LULC change has shifted from a single-factor to multi-factor coupling, and the influence contribution of human activity increased by 6.73%, especially the population. The carbon storage of study areas showed a significant decrease trend during 1980-2010, followed by a slight increase during 2010-2018. High-density carbon storage was mainly distributed in Lianyungang and Nantong and presented a decreasing trend along the coastline extending inland. The dry land and reservoir ponds are the main composition of LULC types in 2036, and the carbon storage increased to 2.39 x 108 t. In addition, more than decades of LULC change will cover part or all of the land use change process and trends, especially high-covered grasslands, so we suggest a 10-year LULC change to analyze coastal areas with lots of tidal flats and bottomlands. Therefore, this study can provide reference and theoretical guidance for ecologically sustainable development and future LULC evolution in coastal cities.