Agricultural Markets, Cropping Patterns, and Consumption Patterns: The Moderating Effect of COVID-19 on Mountainous Communities

Since COVID-19's emergence in 2020, all segments of life, including farming communities, have been impacted. The pandemic revealed both vulnerabilities and opportunities for resilience, particularly for those dwelling in the harsh mountainous terrains, which have already strained food ecosystems. Taking influence from an exhaustive literature review, this study proposes and tests a model for the transformations observed in the agriculture markets, particularly input, labor, and product markets, and elucidates the influence of these changes on cropping and consumption patterns. With data from two major mountainous terrains in north Pakistan spanning three years before and during the pandemic, a quantitative inquiry was carried out on the agriculture markets and farming patterns. A total of 5273 members of the farming communities were targeted for data collection. A two-step process was used for data analysis, including an evaluation of the outer or measurement model followed by the inner or structural model through partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM). With a hitherto ignored focus on the already vulnerable mountainous communities, the findings confirm the direct influence of agriculture markets on changes in the farmers' cropping patterns as well as the moderating influence of the pandemic on these relationships. Consistent with previous literature, the results also affirm the influence of changes in cropping patterns and changes in consumption patterns. However, it was found that the agriculture input markets strongly predict the changes in cropping patterns, whereas the labor and product markets have comparatively lower prediction value. By investigating the various facets of food supply chains, this study offers valuable insights on market dynamics in times of a crisis, such as a pandemic.