Spatiotemporal Economic Analysis of Corn and Wheat Production in the Texas High Plains

The aim of this study is to visualize the historical changes in wheat and corn cropping patterns in the Texas High Plains from the perspective of geographical concentration and spatial autocorrelation. Historical county-level agricultural census data were collected from the United States Department of Agriculture and the National Agricultural Statistics Service from 1978 to 2017. Exploratory data analysis techniques were employed to examine the geographical concentration and spatial dependence of crop production among nearby locations. The results of temporal changes indicate that the harvested acres of corn and wheat tended to decrease throughout the study period. Total and irrigated harvested corn and wheat acreages were concentrated in a smaller number of counties over time while wheat production was mainly concentrated in the northern part of the region. The Moran's I test statistic for total and irrigated areas of cropland suggest that there was spatial dependence among the neighboring counties in crop production in this region. In summary, there was a spatiotemporal change in cropping patterns in the Texas High Plains over the study period. Based on the results of the spatiotemporal changes in cropping patterns in the Texas High Plains, policy makers should promote and support non-irrigated varieties of crops in order to decrease the dependence on irrigation water from the Ogallala Aquifer.