Spatial-temporal evolution mechanism and dynamic simulation of the urban resilience system of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area in China

As the population and industries continue to gather in cities, such cities face acute shocks caused by various natural disasters and high pressure caused by human interference. The means of accurately assessing and improving the level of urban resilience (UR) to cope with disturbances and shocks, enhance regional resilience, and improve sustainable urban development has become a hot topic. In this study, we constructed an UR assessment framework using "social-economic-institutional-ecological-engineering" to explore the dynamic evolution of spatial and temporal patterns in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) of China, to reveal the main factors influencing the evolution of this spatial pattern and the strength and interaction mechanisms among such influencing factors and to dynamically simulate the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics in the next 16 years. The results show that from 2000 to 2019, the difference in UR level in the GBA is obvious. Hong Kong and Macao are obviously ahead of other cities, and the comprehensive resilience level of Guangzhou and Shenzhen cities in the mainland is developing rapidly. The difference in per capita consumption capacity, industrial structure optimization, foreign trade vitality, infrastructure support and other factors are the main causes of the spatial differentiation of UR in the GBA. In the future, the UR level of the GBA urban agglomeration will show an overall upwards trend. The three development poles of Guangzhou-Foshan, Shenzhen-Hong Kong, and Zhuhai-Macao have obvious advantages in spatial distribution. The results of the study can enrich regional UR research, and also provide theoretical references to facilitate the high-quality development of the area.