Influence of interactive effects on long-term population trajectories in multispecies reintroductions

Reintroduced populations are typically considered to progress through establishment, growth, and regulatory phases. However, most reintroduction programs do not monitor intensively enough to test this conceptual model. We studied population indices derived from track activity of 4 threatened species (greater bilby [Macrotis lagotis], burrowing bettong [Bettongia lesueur], greater stick-nest rat [Leporillus conditor], and Shark Bay bandicoot [Perameles bougainville]) over 23 years after multiple reintroductions of each species in arid Australia. We compared population trajectories among species and investigated the effect of time and environmental variables. All species bred immediately after release, and the growth phase lasted 3-16 years, varying markedly among but not within species. The end of the growth phase was characterized by an obvious peak in population density followed by either a catastrophic decline and sustained low density (bettongs), a slow decline to extirpation after 20 years (stick-nest rat), or a slight decline followed by irregular fluctuations (bilby and bandicoot). Minor fluctuations were related to environmental variables, including 12-month cumulative rainfall and lagged summer maximum temperatures. Three of the 4 species did not reach a regulation phase, even after 23 years, possibly due to interspecific competition and trophic cascades triggered by predator removal and multispecies reintroductions. Bilbies and bandicoots exhibited a second growth phase 18 years after reintroduction, likely caused by high rainfall and increased resources following the population crash of overabundant bettongs. Our results suggest that assemblages within multispecies reintroductions demonstrate high variability in population trajectories due to interactive effects. Intensive monitoring to assess population viability may require decades, particularly where multiple species are reintroduced, release sites are confined, and the climate is unpredictable. Intensive monitoring also allows for adaptive management to prevent precipitous population declines. Practitioners should not assume reintroduced species pass through predictable postrelease population phases or that viability is assured after a certain period.