Determining urban growth in response to land use dynamics using multilayer perceptron and Markov chain models in a metropolitan city: past and future

Monitoring changes in land use and land cover over a specific timeframe and predicting future trends is paramount due to its increasing influence on local, regional and global environments. This study analyzes the dynamics of land use and land cover patterns, rapid urban expansion and the underlying driving forces in the past three decades in Kolkata Municipal Corporation (KMC), West Bengal. To establish the relationship between land use/land cover dynamics and built-up expansion from 1990 to 2040, this study utilizes multi-temporal satellite data (Landsat-5 TM, Landsat-8 OLI) and census data, employing models such as MLP-based Markov chain models. The analysis reveals that the highest transformation occurred in green spaces, followed by fallow lands and water bodies, as they were converted into built-up areas and also there is potentiality of expansion around 6129.06 ha area of built-up at the cost of 1053.35 ha water body, 164.48 ha fallow land and 4911.23 ha green spaces up to the year 2040. Kolkata, the third-ranking megacity in India and the capital of West Bengal, faces immense pressure for land transformation due to its Kolkata Municipal Corporation floating population 6 million, surpassing the total residential population of 4.5 million. This rapid urbanization is driven by the need for residential facilities, administrative services, business and commercial services, and employment opportunities. Statistical analysis demonstrates a strong correlation (coefficient of determination = 0.93) between built-up expansion and population growth. These results will support government officials, urban planners and researchers in making decisions and planning for future cities, with a focus on environmentally friendly and sustainable urban development, not just in Kolkata Municipal Corporation but also in other major urban areas.