Comparing and optimizing municipal solid waste (MSW) management focused on air pollution reduction from MSW incineration in China

China is the largest developing country in the world, and its municipal solid waste (MSW) has increased with a compound annual growth rate of 5.1 % since 1980. Incineration, which has the advantages of mass-and volume reduction as well as energy and heat recovery, has become the mainstream environmentally sound treatment method in China. However, air pollution emissions are the primary reason for limiting MSW incineration (MSWI). Currently, the Chinese government is devoted to comprehensively implementing MSW classification. However, the classification model and the future MSW reduction rate are not yet clear. In this study, we project scenarios of air pollution emissions until 2030 based on the different MSW classification models (MSW reduction rates) and diffusion rates of ultra-low emission technology. A total of 6011 tons (t) of particulate matter, 25,881 t of SO2, 14,915 t of CO, 17,167 t of HCl, and 200,166 t of NOx will be emitted in 2030 under the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, and air pollutants will not peak under this scenario. Air pollutants will reduce by 11 % of the BAU scenario by only implementing an MSW reduction of 20 % (JPN-model). The optimal scenario (DEU-model, increasing the efficiency of material recovery and upgrading air pollution control devices) means that air pollutants will be reduced by 83.2-96.2 % from the base amount under the BAU scenario. These results provide references for MSW management and air pollution emission reduction from the aspects of MSW classification and technology upgrades in China.