A three-layer planning framework for regional integrated energy systems based on the quasi-quantum theory

With the rapid development in social informatization, more and more factors, such as regional economy, technological development, and people's living needs, will affect the supply-demand relationship of regional integrated energy systems (RIES), which involve multiple energy forms. These factors turn the supply-demand relationship of an energy system into a nonlinear and time-varying chaotic system. This makes it difficult to predict and balance these relationships, which poses a huge challenge to the prediction, planning, operation, etc. Existing conventional methods attempt to quantify the prediction bias caused by various external environmental factors of energy systems and to weaken the uncertainty caused by multiple energy loads through random programming. However, uncertainty factors increase with the development of an energy system, thereby inreasing the requirements of such uncertainty quantification methods. Furthermore, in conventional methods, the prediction or planning decisions are often made by an observer while neglecting the impact of the observer's decision-making behavior on prediction and planning. Therefore, this paper proposes a three-layer planning framework for to solve the above problems. This architecture includes quasi-quantum uncertainty periodic evaluation, stochastic planning based on information gap decision theory, and rolling planning based on model predictive control. First, we establish a quasi-quantum model of multi-energy system prediction error based on the quasi-quantum wave function model to qualitatively analyze prediction errors affected by uncertainty before and after planning. Simultaneously, combined with the evaluation model of the quasi-quantum potential energy function, a quasi-quantum uncertainty period evaluation model is proposed. Based on the minimum equivalent planning entropy, the planning cycle of multistage rolling planning is divided to minimize uncertainty. Second, the information gap decision theory is used to quantify the influence range of source and load uncertainty in the planning process and the multistage planning cycle is randomly planned. Then, the model predictive control method is used to control the actual error, and the planning strategy is changed in time to reduce the planning deviation caused by the prediction error. Finally, adopting a Beichen demonstration area in Tianjin, China, as a case study, the effectiveness of the proposed method in uncertainty analysis and long-term planning improvement is verified. The three-layer planning framework can improve the adaptability of the regional integrated energy system in the long-term planning process, and can timely adjust the planning scheme to cope with the impact of unpredictable uncertainties in the planning process. (c) 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.