Predicting genetic response to future climate change in Eucalyptus grandis by combining genomic data with climate models

•Fifty high-probability putative adaptive loci with 11 genes were identified from 87,282 SNPs in E. grandis.•Precipitation of coldest quarter is an important climate driver for local adaptation.•Overal, a low risk of non-adaptedness was identified across the 16 populations in the future.•Three populations showed a higher risk of non-adaptedness with RONA scores > 0.1 in the long-future period.