The cardiovascular disease burden attributable to low physical activity in the Western Pacific Region, 1990-2019: an age-period-cohort analysis of the Global Burden of Disease study

Aims To increase the comprehensive understanding of trends in the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) attributable to low physical activity in the Western Pacific Region.Methods and results Based on data from the Global Burden of Disease study for the years 1990-2019, an age-period-cohort analysis was conducted to investigate trends in CVD-related mortality attributable to low physical activity in the Western Pacific Region and associations with age, period, and birth cohort. We also used joinpoint regression analysis to identify the periods with the most substantial changes. The results show that, the Western Pacific Region witnessed a substantial increase in CVD deaths attributable to low physical activity, accompanied by a rise in all-age CVD-related mortality. However, the age-standardized death rate was lower in the region than the global level, highlighting the importance of considering the age composition of CVD burden in the region. Countries with higher socio-demographic index (SDI) levels exhibited lower mortality than those with lower SDI levels. The longitudinal analysis using the age-period-cohort model indicated an overall improvement in CVD-related mortality attributable to low physical activity in the region, but with differences between sexes and CVD subtypes. Specific period in which CVD-related mortality decreased significantly was 2011-16, for the average annual percentage change for the period was -0.69%.Conclusion The study highlights the significance of addressing low physical activity as a modifiable risk factor for CVD burden in the Western Pacific Region. Further research is essential to understand the factors contributing to inter-country variations, sex disparities, and CVD subtypes distinctions. Graphical Abstract