Assessing the Causal Impact of Humanitarian Aid on Food Security
arxiv(2023)
摘要
In the face of climate change-induced droughts, vulnerable regions encounter
severe threats to food security, demanding urgent humanitarian assistance. This
paper introduces a causal inference framework for the Horn of Africa, aiming to
assess the impact of cash-based interventions on food crises. Our contributions
include identifying causal relationships within the food security system,
harmonizing a comprehensive database including socio-economic, weather and
remote sensing data, and estimating the causal effect of humanitarian
interventions on malnutrition. On a country level, our results revealed no
significant effects, likely due to limited sample size, suboptimal data
quality, and an imperfect causal graph resulting from our limited understanding
of multidisciplinary systems like food security. Instead, on a district level,
results revealed significant effects, further implying the context-specific
nature of the system. This underscores the need to enhance data collection and
refine causal models with domain experts for more effective future
interventions and policies, improving transparency and accountability in
humanitarian aid.
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