Analysis of Moko disease propagation on plantain (Musa AAB Simmonds) through a model based on system dynamics

Plantain represents one of the principal sources of income for Colombian farmers, besides being an important aspect of the national culture. Plantain is part of the daily diet for different social levels. Nevertheless, its production is threatened by diseases that have devastated entire crops and have forced many families to change their agricultural occupation. Moko (Ralstonia solanacearum phylotype II race 2) is one of the diseases that over time has caused considerable loses and continues to bring major phytosanitary problems to the region. The easy transmission of the pathogen makes it necessary to implement methodologies that help to limit the epidemic spread of the disease. In order to improve our understanding of the propagation of the disease through the plant’s developmental stages and contribute to establishing better targeted control measures, this paper proposes a population simulation mathematical model, which seeks to interpret the dynamics of Moko disease, bearing in mind the influence of the plant’s developmental cycle. We investigate the implementation of disease prevention on the population of susceptible and infected plants over time. The model has a good fit to the field data. The simulations, using the parameters estimated, showed that early elimination of infected plants is important to reduce disease incidence. It is also important to implement strategies to prevent the spread of the bacteria, which translates to a smaller probability of infection in any state.