The Latent Doctor Model for Modeling Inter-Observer Variability

Many inherently ambiguous tasks in medical imaging suffer from inter-observer variability, resulting in a reference standard defined by a distribution of labels with high variance. Training only on a consensus or majority vote label, as is common in medical imaging, discards valuable information on uncertainty amongst a panel of experts. In this work, we propose to train on the full label distribution to predict the uncertainty within a panel of experts and the most likely ground-truth label. To do so, we propose a new stochastic classification framework based on the conditional variational auto-encoder, which we refer to as the Latent Doctor Model (LDM). In an extensive comparative analysis, we compare the LDM with a model trained on the majority vote label and other methods capable of learning a distribution of labels. We show that the LDM is able to reproduce the reference-standard distribution significantly better than the majority vote baseline. Compared to the other baseline methods, we demonstrate that the LDM performs best at modeling the label distribution and its corresponding uncertainty in two prostate tumor grading tasks. Furthermore, we show competitive performance of the LDM with the more computationally demanding deep ensembles on a tumor budding classification task.