First estimate of distribution, abundance, and risk of encounter with aquaculture vessels for the rare Chilean dolphin in the entire Northern Chilean Patagonia

Assessing distribution and abundance patterns for rare species is challenging yet imperative, considering the extant, potentially hazardous, anthropogenic activities. In particular, the poorly studied Chilean dolphin (Cephalorhynchus eutropia) exhibits an extremely patchy distribution and low densities, co-occurring with the intensive aquaculture industry in Southern Chile, among other anthropogenic activities.The distribution and abundance patterns of Chilean dolphins were assessed in the entire Northern Chilean Patagonia. A hierarchical species distribution model was fitted to data from line transect surveys using distance sampling techniques and environmental variables derived from topographic features and oceanographic models. A second version of this model used a joint-likelihood approach to incorporate presence-pseudoabsence data for improving parameter estimation. Spatial predictions arising from these models were used to evaluate the relative probability of a dolphin encountering vessels from the local, predominantly aquaculture fleet.The results show that using a joint-likelihood approach drastically reduced uncertainty in the parameters controlling the effect of covariates and in the total abundance estimates. This model estimated an overall low abundance (median 2,225.8; 95% CI 1,340-3,867) for this species in the region, and indicates their preference for shallow, sheltered bays and inner channels, near river mouths, where low salinity is expected. The highest probabilities of dolphin-vessel interactions were found on the eastern coast of Chiloe Big Island, coinciding with the largest number of aquaculture concessions in the area.Considering that the overall population of the Chilean dolphin is expected to be in the low thousands, that suitable habitat for the species is highly restricted, and that the species is facing increasing anthropogenic impacts, with some areas undergoing or planning major expansions in development, the results provided here should be considered in management plans for extant marine protected areas, and in the evaluation of current International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and national conservation categories for the species.