Robust target area search using sets of probabilities

Target area search in the standard Bayesian information-theoretic formulation consists of a repetitive cycle of sensing, recursive Bayesian estimation and motion control. The paper formulates the problem of target area search in the framework of imprecise probability theory using probability sets. The rationale is that the measurement model parameters, such as the probability of detection or the probability of false alarm, are rarely known as precise values. Instead, we adopt probability intervals to express beliefs. The paper formulates the Bayes-like state estimation equations as well as the reward function for motion control. The reward function is based on an uncertainty measure which takes into account both randomness and epistemic uncertainty.