Racial discrimination at the polls? The Canadian case of Jagmeet Singh

Discriminatory attitudes towards racial minorities are prevalent throughout society. However, there is mixed evidence of electoral discrimination for racial minority candidates beyond the American context. This paper investigates the effect of racial attitudes on the electoral performance of Canada's New Democratic Party (NDP), by examining the case of Jagmeet Singh, the country's first major federal party leader of color. Relying on three surveys from the Canadian Election Study (2015-2021) and controlling for demographics, ideology, and partisanship, we find voters with more negative attitudes toward racial minorities were significantly: (1) less likely to vote for the NDP under Singh's leadership; (2) more likely to abandon than join the party in his first federal election; and (3) more likely to view Singh negatively than his predecessor. The findings suggest that some racial minority candidates likely face significant electoral penalties, which may contribute to the consistent underrepresentation of racial minorities throughout democracies.