An Assessment of Extra-Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Extremes Over the Southern Hemisphere Using ERA5

ERA5 reanalysis is used to examine extreme precipitation using a spatially dependent precipitation threshold applied within a cyclone compositing framework. This is used to account for regional variation in precipitation generating processes within Southern Hemisphere mid-latitude cyclones across the cyclone lifecycle. The spatial extent of extreme precipitation is limited to a smaller region around the cyclone center compared to non-extreme precipitation, though extreme precipitation displays a good spatial correlation with non-extreme precipitation. Extreme precipitation occurs more often during the deepening phase of the cyclone before it reaches peak intensity. Precipitation occurrence at the 90th and 98th percentiles reduces to 46% and 30% of the deepening value across the cyclone lifecycle, averaged over the composite. Precipitation fraction at the 90th and 98th percentile reduces to 80% and 60% of the deepening value. Our methodology provides a quantitative assessment of precipitation extremes both spatially and temporally, within a cyclone compositing framework. Extra-tropical cyclones play a major role in the circulation within the atmosphere, acting to transfer heat toward the poles. Here we assess the representation of extreme precipitation within extra-tropical cyclones. By applying a threshold for precipitation that changes with geographic location, we are able to determine how extreme precipitation varies within a cyclone-centered coordinate system. When breaking cyclones into lifecycle stages representing deepening, peak intensity and decay, we find that extreme precipitation occurs most often as the cyclone is developing. The area of the cyclone relevant for extremes reduces toward the cyclone center as the threshold for determining extreme precipitation increases. Extreme precipitation weakens at a higher rate as cyclones becomes more intense, highlighting the importance of extremes in the growth phase of the cyclone. We detail a new methodology to assess precipitation extremes within cyclone composites using a spatially dependent precipitation thresholdExtreme precipitation occurs preferentially and makes up a larger fraction of total accumulation before cyclones reach peak intensityExtreme precipitation is more constrained around the cyclone center and weakens more rapidly over time compared to moderate precipitation