Pathway-Specific Polygenic Scores Improve Cross-Ancestry Prediction of Psychosis and Clinical Outcomes

Psychotic disorders are debilitating conditions with disproportionately high public health burden. Genetic studies indicate high heritability, but current polygenic scores (PGS) account for only a fraction of variance in psychosis risk. PGS often show poor portability across ancestries, performing significantly worse in non-European populations. Pathway-specific PGS (pPGS), which restrict PGS to genomic locations within distinct biological units, could lead to increased mechanistic understanding of pathways that lead to risk and improve cross-ancestry prediction by reducing noise in genetic predictors. This study examined the predictive power of genome-wide PGS and nine pathway-specific pPGS in a unique Chinese-ancestry sample of deeply-phenotyped psychosis patients and non-psychiatric controls. We found strong evidence for the involvement of schizophrenia-associated risk variants within “nervous system development” (p=2.5e-4) and “regulation of neuron differentiation” pathways (p=3.0e-4) in predicting risk for psychosis. We also found the “ion channel complex” pPGS, with weights derived from GWAS of bipolar disorder, to be strongly associated with the number of inpatient psychiatry admissions a patient experiences (p=1.5e-3) and account for a majority of the signal in the overall bipolar PGS. Importantly, although the schizophrenia genome-wide PGS alone explained only 3.7% of the variance in liability to psychosis in this Chinese ancestry sample, the addition of the schizophrenia-weighted pPGS for “nervous system development” and “regulation of neuron differentiation” increased the variance explained to 6.9%, which is on-par with the predictive power of PGS in European ancestry samples. Thus, not only can pPGS provide greater insight into mechanisms underlying genetic risk for disease and clinical outcomes, but may also improve cross-ancestry risk prediction accuracy. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement This project was partially supported by a Health and Medical Research Fund (07180376). JDT was supported by funding from the National Human Genome Research Institute (T32HG010464). EFC was supported by a donation from the Philip KH Wong Foundation. SSYL was supported by HKU Seed Fund for Basic Research for New Staff (202009185071) and the HKU Enhanced Start-up Fund for New Staff. PCS was supported by the Suen Chi-Sun Endowed Professorship in Clinical Science. ### Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below: The New Territories West Cluster Research Ethics Committee gave ethical approval for this work (Protocol number: NTWC/CREC/823/10; NTWC/CREC/1293/14; UW14-325). I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines, such as any relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material, if applicable. Yes As stipulated in the ethical approval for this study, the data are confidential and thus are not publicly available.