18F-FDG-PET/CT-based machine learning model evaluates indeterminate adrenal nodules in patients with extra-adrenal malignancies

To assess the value of an 18F-FDG-positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT)-based machine learning model for distinguishing between adrenal benign nodules (ABNs) and adrenal metastases (AMs) in patients with indeterminate adrenal nodules and extra-adrenal malignancies. A total of 303 patients who underwent 18F-FDG-PET/CT with indeterminate adrenal nodules and extra-adrenal malignancies from March 2015 to June 2021 were included in this retrospective study (training dataset (n = 182): AMs (n = 97), ABNs (n = 85); testing dataset (n = 121): AMs (n = 68), ABNs (n = 55)). The clinical and PET/CT imaging features of the two groups were analyzed. The predictive model and simplified scoring system for distinguishing between AMs and ABNs were built based on clinical and PET/CT risk factors using multivariable logistic regression in the training cohort. The performances of the predictive model and simplified scoring system in both the training and testing cohorts were evaluated by the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) and calibration curves. The comparison of AUCs was evaluated by the DeLong test. The predictive model included four risk factors: sex, the ratio of the maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax) of adrenal lesions to the mean liver standardized uptake value, the value on unenhanced CT (CTU), and the clinical stage of extra-adrenal malignancies. The model achieved an AUC of 0.936 with a specificity, sensitivity and accuracy of 0.918, 0.835, and 0.874 in the training dataset, respectively, while it yielded an AUC of 0.931 with a specificity, sensitivity, and accuracy of 1.00, 0.735, and 0.851 in the testing dataset, respectively. The simplified scoring system had comparable diagnostic value to the predictive model in both the training (AUC 0.938, sensitivity: 0.825, specificity 0.953, accuracy 0.885; P = 0.5733) and testing (AUC 0.931, sensitivity 0.735, specificity 1.000, accuracy 0.851; P = 1.00) datasets. Our study showed the potential ability of a machine learning model and a simplified scoring system based on clinical and 18F-FDG-PET/CT imaging features to predict AMs in patients with indeterminate adrenal nodules and extra-adrenal malignancies. The simplified scoring system is simple, convenient, and easy to popularize.