Temporal and age-specific trends in incidence and 1-year case-fatality of hospitalized ischaemic stroke in Victoria, Australia

Objectives: Investigate temporal and age-specific trends in the incidence of ischaemic stroke and case-fatality risk in Victoria, Australia. Materials and methods: Patients hospitalised with first ischaemic stroke between 2012 and 2018 were included. Trends in age-standardised incidence rates of ischaemic stroke were assessed using linear regression models. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to examine the case-fatality risk. Results: Overall age-standardised incidence of ischaemic stroke was stable from 2012/13 to 2017/18 (87.6 to 84.8 events per 100,000 population; Annual percentage change [APC] -0.32; 95% Confidence interval [CI] -1.13 to 0.50). The incidence declined in females (APC -1.00; 95% CI -1.49 to -0.50), people aged 75-84 years (APC -1.60; 95% CI -2.83 to -0.36) and in metropolitan areas (APC -0.74; 95% CI -1.02 to -0.45). The risk of 1-year case-fatality (HR 0.85; 95% CI 0.78 to 0.93) significantly declined in 2016/17 compared to 2012/13. Conclusions: Overall ischaemic stroke incidence remained stable while decreasing trends were observed in females, elderly and metropolitan areas. 1-year case-fatality declined from 2012 to 2017.