Reclassification of therapeutic response of unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma to anti-angiogenic therapy and immunotherapy using alpha RECIST

Objectives To assess the therapeutic response of HCC to antiangiogenic therapy plus immunotherapy by integrating RECIST 1.1 and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) response at the 6th week to predict overall survival (OS). Methods This retrospective study included 150 and 214 patients with HCC who received combination therapy in training and validation cohorts. The medical images and AFP levels obtained at baseline and 6th week were collected. AFP response stratification: partial response (PR): AFP% ≥ 75% decline; stable disease (SD): AFP% < 75% decline and ≤ 10% elevation; progressive disease (PD): AFP% > 10% elevation. The alpha-RECIST was: PR: RECIST 1.1-PR or AFP-PR; PD: AFP-PD or RECIST 1.1-PD and does not satisfy AFP-PR; SD: neither PR nor PD. OS was compared using Kaplan–Meier curves. The predictive ability of various criteria was evaluated using the concordance index and time-dependent area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve. Results RECIST 1.1 achieved significant OS stratification ( p = 0.020) for AFP < 20 ng/mL. For AFP ≥ 20 ng/mL, alpha-RECIST showed better performance than RECIST 1.1, mRECIST, and AFP response according to C-index (0.73 vs 0.66 vs 0.68 vs 0.69). The National Cancer Center (NCC) strategy utilized RECIST 1.1 for AFP < 20 ng/mL and alpha-RECIST for AFP ≥ 20 ng/mL and showed better performance than RECIST 1.1, mRECIST and AFP response according to C-index (0.73 vs 0.67 vs 0.69 vs 0.64). The performances of alpha-RECIST and NCC Strategy were confirmed in the validation cohort (C-index = 0.77 and 0.74). Conclusions The alpha-RECIST and NCC Strategy achieved better survival stratification in patients with HCC under combination therapy in the AFP ≥ 20 ng/mL group and the whole cohort compared to the RECIST 1.1, mRECIST, and AFP response. Clinical translational relevance The alpha-RECIST and National Cancer Center strategy are optimal methods for determining therapeutic response to a combination of anti-angiogenic therapy plus immunotherapy and facilitating accurate prognostic stratification for HCC in the AFP ≥ 20 ng/mL group and the whole cohort, which may help oncologists for early identification of responders and progression at 6 weeks and clinical decision-making. Key Points • RECIST 1.1 is indicated for patients with baseline alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) < 20 ng/mL. • For patients with baseline AFP ≥ 20 ng/mL, integrating RECIST 1.1 and AFP response (alpha-RECIST) may aid in the early identification of survival benefits and progression definition prior to the administration of additional efficacious drugs. • The National Cancer Center strategy is an optimal stratified strategy for determining therapeutic response to a combination of anti-angiogenic therapy and immunotherapy for HCC based on baseline AFP levels. Graphical abstract