Climate change and coastal population dynamics in Togo (West Africa)

Global warming is a worldwide phenomenon. Some of the consequences are ocean warming, melting glaciers, sea levels rising and coastal erosion. One of the means for a sustainable management of coastal areas is to have information on the trend of climatic parameters at the local scale as well as the spatial distribution and dynamics of coastal people. This study is a contribution to the assessment of the extent of climatic parameters and dynamics of coastal peoples in Togo. Climatic data like, precipitation, temperature, wind speed, sunshine, tidal gauge and satellite images (Landsat and Sentinel-2 images) for the period from 1988 to 2020 were used. The Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope test were used for climate trend analysis while settlement area mapping was done using Object-Based Image Analysis method. The results revealed a significant trend in temperature and sea level rise. The temperature analysis showed an increase of trend of 0. 038 °C/year while the tidal gauge data analysis showed an increase of trend of 13.75 mm/year. The annual trend of other climatic parameters was not significant but record monthly variability which were significant. The settlement areas has changed from 2. 06% to 11. 85% between 1988 and 2020. Near the sea, the settlement pattern is compacted with high density of people. In the inland this pattern is dispersed. In 1980, the population of the maritime region was estimated at 1,042,385 people while in 2022 it was 3,534,991 people. The study concludes that the coastal areas of Togo are hot spots of high population density and facing to the rise in temperature and sea level rise.