Forecasting of an unusual dust event over western India by the Air Quality Early Warning System
Atmospheric Environment(2023)
Abstract
This study presents the successful implementation of an operational Air Quality Early Warning System (AQEWS) in forecasting an unprecedented dust storm event that occurred in the western part of India from 21-24 January 2022. The AQEWS generates a daily 72-h forecast using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) at the core, which is initialized with assimilated data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrievals and in-situ measurements of fine particulate matter (PM2.5). The AQEWS was able to forecast the outbreak of this dust storm reasonably well over the north of the Arabian Sea on 21 January, as well as its movement and dispersal towards the Indian landmass in the subsequent 72 h, resulting in a significant amount of transported dust that engulfed the west Indian region on 23-24 January. We utilize satellite observations and in situ measurements to quantify the ability of the forecasting system to predict the spatiotemporal characteristics of the dust storm. Notably, the AQEWS aerosol data assimilation process played a critical role in forecasting the anomalous increase of PM10 in several west Indian cities, as it significantly improved the initial conditions of PM10 by approximately 24-40 & mu;g/m3 and PM2.5 concentration by approximately 30-38 & mu;g/m3. Without assimilation, the system fails to capture the intensity, and pattern of variability of the dust storm. The mean bias of the 72-h prediction of PM10 was substantially reduced with assimilation, from -44% to 0.35% in Mumbai and from -57% to 13% in Gujarat. In selected regions, in situ measurements confirmed that the AQEWS adequately captured the peak intensity and pattern of the dust storm event. The AQEWS thus demonstrated improved forecasting skills in predicting an extreme dust event during winter and the adoption of chemical data assimilation enhanced the accuracy of the real-time air quality forecasting system.
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Key words
Air quality forecast,WRF-Chem,Dust storms,Data assimilation
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