Five-year outcomes for extremely preterm babies with active perinatal management: A clinical prediction model

Objective: To develop and validate a clinical prediction model for outcomes at 5 years of age for children born extremely preterm and receiving active perinatal management.Design: The EPIPAGE-2 national prospective cohort.Setting: France, 2011.Population: Live-born neonates between 24(+0) and 26(+6) weeks of gestation who received active perinatal management (i.e. birth in a tertiary-level hospital, with antenatal steroids and resuscitation at birth).Methods: A prediction model using logistic modelling, including gestational age, small-for gestational-age (SGA) status and sex, was developed. Model performance was assessed through calibration and discrimination, with bootstrap internal validation.Main outcome measures: Survival without moderate or severe neurodevelopmental disability (NDD) at 5 years.Results: Among the 557 neonates included, 401 (72%) survived to 5 years, of which 59% survived without NDD (95% CI 54% to 63%). Predicted rates of survival without NDD ranged from 45% (95% CI 33% to 57%), to 56% (95% CI 49% to 64%) to 64% (95% CI 57% to 70%) for neonates born at 24, 25 and 26 weeks of gestation, respectively. Predicted rates of survival without NDD were 47% (95% CI 18% to 76%) and 62% (95% CI 49% to 76%) for SGA and non-SGA children, respectively. The model showed good calibration (calibration slope 0.85, 95% CI 0.54 to 1.16; calibration-in-the-large -0.0123, 95% CI -0.25 to 0.23) and modest discrimination (C-index 0.59, 95% CI 0.53 to 0.65).Conclusions: A simple prediction model using three factors easily known antenatally may help doctors and families in their decision-making for extremely preterm neonates receiving active perinatal management.