Adaptive management of water resources system in the arid Aksu river basin, northwest China

Due to changing environments, the conflict between water supply and demand in arid northwest China is becoming increasingly prominent, resulting in the water security challenges and the need for risk management. Therefore, this study aimed at developing an adaptive management approach for the compound systems of water ecology and socioeconomics in the Aksu River Basin (ARB), a typical northwest arid watershed in China. This strategy aimed to reduce risk based on an adjusted water resource management system with the stringent controls (i.e., total water consumption, water use efficiency, and minimum ecological water satisfaction rate controls ‘three red lines’). The main findings are as follows: (1) Although the water resource system in the ARB is currently at low risk state, it could be subjected to higher risk levels in future scenarios. (2) An adjusted “three red lines” policy should be utilized to ensure adaptive management of risk in the water resource system. The corresponding coefficients for each “red line” was 8.37, 10.78, and 0.609, respectively. (3) Following a nonlinear multi-objective management, the vulnerability and risk decreased significantly, by −100% and −50%, respectively, whereas the resilience of the water resource system increased significantly, up to 330%. Therefore, adaptive water resource management is vital in reducing water resource risk, and is important for understanding the status of regional water resource systems and solving water security problems in a changing environment.