Can we use atmospheric CO₂ measurements to verify emission trends reported by cities? Lessons from a 6-year atmospheric inversion over Paris

Existing CO2 emissions reported by city inventories usually lag in real-time by a year or more and are prone to large uncertainties. This study responds to the growing need for timely and precise estimation of urban CO2 emissions to support present and future mitigation measures and policies. We focus on the Paris metropolitan area, the largest urban region in the European Union and the city with the densest atmospheric CO2 observation network in Europe. We performed long-term atmospheric inversions to quantify the citywide CO2 emissions, i.e., fossil fuel as well as biogenic sources and sinks, over 6 years (2016-2021) using a Bayesian inverse modeling system. Our inversion framework benefits from a novel near-real-time hourly fossil fuel CO2 emission inventory (Origins.earth) at 1 km spatial resolution. In addition to the mid-afternoon observations, we attempt to assimilate morning CO2 concentrations based on the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) transport model to simulate atmospheric boundary layer dynamics constrained by observed layer heights. Our results show a long-term decreasing trend of around 2% +/- 0.6% per year in annual CO2 emissions over the Paris region. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic led to a 13% +/- 1% reduction in annual fossil fuel CO2 emissions in 2020 with respect to 2019. Subsequently, annual emissions increased by 5.2% +/- 14.2% from 32.6 +/- 2.2 MtCO(2) in 2020 to 34.3 +/- 2.3 MtCO(2) in 2021. Based on a combination of up-to-date inventories, high-resolution atmospheric modeling and high-precision observations, our current capacity can deliver near-real-time CO2 emission estimates at the city scale in less than a month, and the results agree within 10% with independent estimates from multiple city-scale inventories.