Is the decarbonization of the European energy system driving district heating in Norway?

The main question in this paper is whether the decarbonization of the European energy system is driving district heating in Norway. In particular, we deal with a typical simplification of large-scale energy system models, as they do not separate between centralized (district heating) and decentralized (building heating) heat supply. Therefore, the results generated by the EMPIRE model (e.g. electricity prices, heat production by source) for decarbonizing the European energy system are used as parameters/constraints for cost-optimal planning of the local district heating network in Oslo, Norway, until 2050. The results show that district heating will increase significantly, shifting the heat supply from building heating to district heating. Furthermore, district heating will double by 2040 compared to 2025 and will be the primary heat supply option by 2040. Based on our findings, we also present lessons and recommendations for the representation of district heating in large-scale energy system models.