Decadienal afforestation and risks to montane grassland amphibians in the Udzungwa Plateau, Tanzania

Human modification of the environment has drastically changed ecosystems around the globe. While forest-loss (deforestation) has been well studied for its effects on ecosystems, afforestation also has major impacts. The Udzungwa Plateau in Tanzania is naturally a mix of forests and grasslands. However, non-native pine plantations have recently increased in the area displacing the native grasslands of the montane plateau. In this study, we explored the effects of land use change on amphibian communities by comparing amphibian surveys before non-native plantations were introduced (similar to 2000) and after (2017-2019). To put these amphibian surveys into wider context across the plateau and to distinguish local population loss compared to plateau-wide extinctions, we sample diversity at new sampling locations and locations with multiple surveys through time. We then assessed landscape change through remotely sensed data and ground surveys. Amphibian encounter surveys found approximately the same species diversity across all sampling locations, but local extinctions appear likely. Remaining amphibians appear to be limited to small refugia in non-pine wetlands. Approximately half (45%) of the species found have limited distributional ranges (<72,000 km(2)) and are described as habitat specialists by the IUCN Red List. Monitoring pine plantation growth using remote sensing techniques suggested only limited extensions of plantations between 2000 through to 2013-2016, but ground surveys found small pines (<3 years old) throughout almost all areas identified as grasslands on satellite imagery. Our study highlights the plight of this narrowing biome on the African continent and calls for more research on the impact of non-native plantations on natural communities.Abstract in Swahili is available with online material.