Air quality, health and equity implications of electrifying heavy-duty vehicles

Heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) disproportionately contribute to the creation of air pollutants and emission of greenhouse gases—with marginalized populations unequally burdened by the impacts of each. Shifting to non-emitting technologies, such as electric HDVs (eHDVs), is underway; however, the associated air quality and health implications have not been resolved at equity-relevant scales. Here we use a neighbourhood-scale (~1 km) air quality model to evaluate air pollution, public health and equity implications of a 30% transition of predominantly diesel HDVs to eHDVs over the region surrounding North America’s largest freight hub, Chicago, IL. We find decreases in nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) concentrations but ozone (O 3 ) increases, particularly in urban settings. Over our simulation domain NO 2 and PM 2.5 reductions translate to ~590 (95% confidence interval (CI) 150–900) and ~70 (95% CI 20–110) avoided premature deaths per year, respectively, while O 3 increases add ~50 (95% CI 30–110) deaths per year. The largest pollutant and health benefits simulated are within communities with higher proportions of Black and Hispanic/Latino residents, highlighting the potential for eHDVs to reduce disproportionate and unjust air pollution and associated air-pollution attributable health burdens within historically marginalized populations.