Development and Validation of a Post-Radiotherapy Prediction Model for Bowel Dysfunction After Rectal Cancer Resection

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The benefit of radiotherapy for rectal cancer is based largely on a balance between a decrease in local recurrence and an increase in bowel dysfunction. Predicting postoperative disability is helpful for recovery plans and early intervention. We aimed to develop and validate a risk model to improve the prediction of major bowel dysfunction after restorative rectal cancer resection with neoadjuvant radiotherapy using perioperative features. METHODS: Eligible patients more than 1 year after restorative resection following radiotherapy were invited to complete the low anterior resection syndrome (LARS) score at 3 national hospitals in China. Clinical characteristics and imaging parameters were assessed with machine learning algorithms. The post radiotherapy LARS prediction model (PORTLARS) was constructed by means of logistic regression on the basis of key factors with proportional weighs. The accuracy of the model for major LARS prediction was internally and externally validated. RESULTS: A total of 868 patients reported a mean LARS score of 28.4 after an average time of 4.7 years since surgery. Key predictors for major LARS included the length of distal rectum, anastomotic leakage, proximal colon of neorectum, and pathologic nodal stage. PORTLARS had a favorable area under the curve for predicting major LARS in the internal dataset (0.835; 95% CI, 0.800-0.870, n = 521) and external dataset (0.884; 95% CI, 0.848-0.921, n = 347). The model achieved both sensitivity and specificity >0.83 in the external validation. In addition, PORTLARS outperformed the preoperative LARS score for prediction of major events. CONCLUSIONS: PORTLARS could predict major bowel dysfunction after rectal cancer resection following radiotherapy with high accuracy and robustness. It may serve as a useful tool to identify patients who need additional support for long-term dysfunction in the early stage.