A Prediction Model for Intermediate- and High-risk Pulmonary Hypertension During the Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Abstract Background: Pulmonary hypertension (PH) is a serious complication of COPD and is associated with poor prognosis. There are currently no established predictive models for PH during the acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD). Objective: To establish a prediction model for intermediate- and high-risk PH in AECOPD patients. Methods: This study collected data from 203 AECOPD patients and divided the patients into a model group and an external validation group. The influence of each parameter on PH was analysed through univariate and multivariate analyses, and these data were used to build a prediction model. Finally, the discriminative ability, calibration ability and clinical efficacy of the model were tested. Result: Age, RDW-CV and RDW-SD were related to PH, so these variables were used to establish a prediction model. In addition, the discriminative ability, calibration ability and clinical efficacy of the model were affirmed. Conclusion: This study established a clinical prediction model for AECOPD patients with PH, and the prediction model has certain clinical value for assisting in the screening of intermediate- and high-risk patients with PH.