Economic appraisal standards for planning earthquake early warning infrastructure acquisition

Abstract Earthquake early warning systems can reduce potential economic losses caused by earthquakes. However, they are expensive to implement and maintain, as examples from around the word show. These examples also show the challenges in accurately estimating their costs during the acquisition phase and the consequences of poor cost estimating practices. Indeed, current approaches to early cost estimates lack consistency and a well thought out structure as there are currently no established standards to support cost planning for EEW systems. This paper argues that standards for estimating capital and maintenance costs are important during the infrastructure acquisition phase to ensure the financial viability and effective cost management of earthquake early warning systems. By comparing cost estimates of selected existing EEW systems against generic economic appraisal standards and using cost data from a research project which developed and tested a new EEW system, this paper provides insights into the factors that need to be considered when estimating the capital and maintenance costs of new EEW systems. As such, it provides the foundation for the development of economic appraisal standards for EEW systems. Standards for estimating costs could help decision makers develop well thought through estimates for capital and maintenance costs for major investments such as earthquake early warning systems and, assist subsequent cost controlling activities throughout the project life cycle.