Real-time epidemiological modelling during the COVID-19 emergency in Wales

The sudden outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic presented governments, policy makers and health services with an unprecedented challenge of taking real-time decisions that could keep the disease under control with non-pharmaceutical interventions, while at the same time limit as much as possible severe consequences of a very strict lockdown. Mathematical modelling has proved to be a crucial element for informing those decisions. Here we report on the rapid development and application of the Swansea Model, a mathematical model of disease spread in real time, to inform policy decisions during the COVID-19 pandemic in Wales. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement We acknowledge support from the European Regional Development Fund, EPSRC (grant EP/W01226X/1) and Welsh Government Grants: Ser Cymru III "Visual Analytics of Epidemic Simulations with Many Actor Behaviours", C098/201/2022, and [SAP]4400015698. ### Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines, such as any relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material, if applicable. Yes All data produced in the present study are available upon reasonable request to the authors