Population health impacts and associated monetary gains from the taxation of salt and sugar in the United Kingdom

Poor diets contribute to significantly and increasingly to the burden of chronic diseases in the United Kingdom, impacting both health and the economy. The introduction of fiscal measures that target unhealthy foods could provide a near-unique opportunity to shifting diets at scale for the benefit of both social and economic sustainability. This study estimates the expected health and economic benefits from the reduction in consumption of salt and sugar for four scenarios, each reflecting different manufacturer and consumer responses to a proposed tax on salt and sugar. The results of this modelling show that life expectancy in the UK could be increased by between 1.7 months and nearly 5 months, depending on the degree of industry and consumer response to the tax. The tax could also lead to almost 2 million fewer cases of preventable chronic diseases over 25 years. In addition, economic benefits of approximately £27 to £78 billion from avoided ill-health could be achieved by introducing the proposed tax. The main part of these gains can be attributed to reduced mortality and morbidity from cardiovascular diseases. Our modelling show that significant benefits to both population health and the economy could be expected from the taxation of foods high in salt and sugar. The proposed dietary changes are likely to be insufficient to reach national public health targets; hence, additional measures to reduce the burden of chronic disease in the UK are equally critical to consider. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement The contribution by PEC was funded by the Swedish Research Council (grant number 2022-00344). The funders had no role in the study design, data analysis or writing, or the decision to submit for publication. ### Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines, such as any relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material, if applicable. Yes All data produced in the present study are available upon reasonable request to the authors. * AF : Atrial Fibrillation BMI : Body mass index DHSC : Department of Health and Social Care GBD : Global Burden of Disease IHD : Ischemic heart disease NFS : National Food Strategy QALY : Quality Adjusted Life Year RR : Relative Risk SDIL : Sugary drinks industry levy SSB : Sugar sweetened beverages YLG : Years of Life Gained YLL : Years of Life Lost