A comprehensive and policy-oriented model of the hydrogen vehicle fleet composition, applied to the UK market

Road vehicles play an important role in the UK’s energy systems and are a critical component in reducing the reliance on fossil fuels and mitigating emissions. A dynamic model of light-duty vehicle fleet, based on predator-prey concepts, is presented. This model is designed to be comprehensive but captures the important features of the competition between types of vehicles on the car market. It allows to predict the evolution of the hydrogen based vehicle’s role in the UK’s vehicle fleet. The model allows to forecast effects of policies, hence to inform policy makers. In particular, it is shown that the transition happens only if the hydrogen supply can absorb at least 350,000 new vehicles per year. In addition to this, the model is used to predict the demand for hydrogen for the passenger vehicle fleet for various scenarios. A key finding of the policy-oriented model is that a successful transition to a clean fleet before 2050 is unlikely without policies designed to fully support the supply chain development. It also shows that the amount of hydrogen required to support a full hydrogen based vehicle fleet is currently not economically viable; the needed infrastructure requires yearly investment larger than £2.5 billions. In order to mitigate these costs, the policy focus should shift from hydrogen based vehicles to hybrid vehicles and range extenders in the transport energy system.