Dynamic deformation monitoring and scenario simulation of the Xiaomojiu landslide in the Jinsha River Basin, China

The Xiaomojiu landslide is a typical high-elevation, long-runout landslide located in the Jinsha River Corridor. In this study, sequential InSAR time-series estimation was used to calculate the line of sight (LOS) surface displacements with descending and ascending Sentinel-1 images, and it turned out that the cumulative LOS surface displacement of the landslide was up to −78.4 mm during the period from October 2017 to April 2021 with the maximum LOS surface displacement rate of −38.5 mm/year. The landslide body could be divided into five zones (A, B1, B2, B3, and C) according to its topographical characteristics together with the LOS surface displacement time series. Combining engineering geological characteristics, LOS cumulative surface displacements with site investigation suggest that the Xiaomojiu landslide is likely to be a precipitation-triggered ancient traction rock landslide at the accelerated deformation stage. A dynamic simulation of the Xiaomojiu landslide with the PFC3D software shows that it could take approximately 65 s for the Xiaomojiu landslide from start-up to acceleration to deceleration to build-up of a barrier lake, followed by a simulation from the barrier lake to outburst floods with the HEC-RAS software indicating that the maximum depth of the outburst floods could be 13.5 m (15%), 24.6 m (25%), 42.1 m (50%), and 50.3 m (75%) along Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Transportation Corridor (QTPTC). It is believed that the results of this study provide a reference for landslide prevention along the QTPTC and the Jinsha River.