ECoG spiking activity and signal dimension are early predictive measures of epileptogenesis in a translational mouse model of traumatic brain injury

The latency between traumatic brain injury (TBI) and the onset of epilepsy (PTE) represents an opportunity for counteracting epileptogenesis. Antiepileptogenesis trials are hampered by the lack of sensitive biomarkers that allow to enrich patient's population at-risk for PTE. We aimed to assess whether specific ECoG signals predict PTE in a clinically relevant mouse model with similar to 60% epilepsy incidence. TBI was provoked in adult CD1 male mice by controlled cortical impact on the left parieto-temporal cortex, then mice were implanted with two perilesional cortical screw electrodes and two similar electrodes in the hemisphere contralateral to the lesion site. Acute seizures and spikes/sharp waves were ECoG-recorded during 1 week post-TBI. These early ECoG events were analyzed according to PTE incidence as assessed by measuring spontaneous recurrent seizures (SRS) at 5 months post-TBI. We found that incidence, number and duration of acute seizures during 3 days post-TBI were similar in PTE mice and mice not developing epilepsy (No SRS mice). Control mice with cortical electrodes (naive, n = 5) or with electrodes and craniotomy (sham, n = 5) exhibited acute seizures but did not develop epilepsy. The daily number of spikes/sharp waves at the perilesional electrodes was increased similarly in PTE (n = 15) and No SRS (n = 8) mice vs controls (p < 0.05, n = 10) from day 2 post-injury. Differently, the daily number of spikes/sharp waves at both contralateral electrodes showed a progressive increase in PTE mice vs No SRS and control mice. In particular, spikes number was higher in PTE vs No SRS mice (p < 0.05) at 6 and 7 days post-TBI, and this measure predicted epilepsy development with high accuracy (AUC = 0.77, p = 0.03; CI 0.5830-0.9670). The cut-off value was validated in an independent cohort of TBI mice (n = 12). The daily spike number at the contralateral electrodes showed a circadian distribution in PTE mice which was not observed in No SRS mice. Analysis of non-linear dynamics at each electrode site showed changes in dimensionality during 4 days post-TBI. This measure yielded the best discrimination between PTE and No SRS mice (p < 0.01) at the cortical electrodes contralateral to injury. Data show that epileptiform activity contralateral to the lesion site has the the highest predictive value for PTE in this model reinforcing the hypothesis that the hemisphere contralateral to the lesion core may drive epileptogenic networks after TBI.