Evaluation of health and economic effects of United States school meal standards consistent with the 2020-2025 dietary guidelines for Americans.

BACKGROUND:The current school meal nutrition standards, established in 2010, are not fully aligned with the 2020-2025 Dietary Guideline for Americans (DGA). This study evaluates the potential short-term and long-term health and economic benefits of strengthening the school meal standards on added sugars, sodium, and whole grains to be aligned with current guidelines. METHODS:We used comparative risk assessment frameworks based on nationally representative data incorporating current demographics, dietary habits, and risk factors of United States children aged 5-18 y from 3 cycles of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2013-2018). To estimate short-term impact, the model incorporated estimated dietary changes owing to potential new DGA-aligned school meal nutrition standards and the effect of these changes on childhood body mass index (in kg/m2) and blood pressure. To estimate long-term impact, the model further incorporated data on the sustainability of childhood dietary changes into adulthood, and on demographics and risk factors of United States adults, diet-disease associations, and disease-specific national mortality. RESULTS:In a best-case scenario assuming full school compliance, implementing new DGA-aligned nutritional standards would lower elementary children's BMI by an average 0.14 (95% UI: 0.08-0.20) kg/m2 and systolic blood pressure by 0.13 (95% UI: 0.06-0.19) (95% mm Hg. Later in life, the new standards were estimated to prevent 10,600 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 4820-16,800) annual deaths from cardiovascular disease (CVD), diabetes, and cancer in adulthood; and save 355,000 (95% UI: 175,000-538,000) disability-adjusted life years and $19.3 (95% UI: 9.35-30.3) B in direct and indirect medical costs each year. Accounting for plausible (incomplete) school compliance, implementation would save an estimated 9110 (95% UI: 2740-15,100) deaths, 302,000 (95% UI: 120,000-479,000) disability-adjusted life years, and $15.9 (95% UI: 4.54-27.2) B in healthcare-related costs per year in later adulthood. CONCLUSIONS:Stronger school meal nutrition standards on added sugars, sodium, and whole grains aligned with the 2020-2025 DGA recommendations may improve diet, childhood health, and future adult burdens of CVD, diabetes, cancer, and associated economic costs.