Drought conditions, aridity and forest structure control the responses of Iberian holm oak woodlands to extreme droughts: A large-scale remote-sensing exploration in eastern Spain.

Understanding how Mediterranean forests respond to the increasing frequency of extreme droughts and forest densification is crucial for effective land management in the present context of climate change and land abandonment. We study the responses of Iberian holm oak (Quercus ilex L.) woodlands to recent extreme droughts during 2000-2019 along broad gradients of climate aridity and forest structure. To this purpose, we apply large-scale remote-sensing using MODIS EVI as a primary production proxy in 5274 Q. ilex sites distributed within a 100,000 km2 region in eastern Spain. These woodlands were extensively affected by two extreme drought events in 2005 and 2012. Resistance, assessed as the capacity of the ecosystems to maintain primary production during drought, was significantly lower for semi-arid than for sub-humid and dry-transition conditions. Holm oak woodlands located in semi-arid areas of the region showed also poorer resilience to drought, characterized by low capacity to fully recover to their pre-drought production levels. Further, drought intensity and both pre- and post-drought hydric conditions controlled the variations of resistance, recovery and resilience between the two analyzed extreme drought events. Drought effects were particularly negative for dense Q. ilex stands under semi-arid climate conditions, where strong competition for scarce water resources reduced drought resistance. The observed drought vulnerability of semi-arid holm oak woodlands may affect the long-term stability of these dry forests. Adaptive management strategies, such as selective forest thinning, may be useful for improving drought responses in these more vulnerable semi-arid woodlands. Conversely, natural rewilding may more appropriately guide management actions for more humid areas, where densely developed Q. ilex woodlands show in general a high ability to maintain ecosystem primary production during drought.