Wave climate characteristics and effects of tropical cyclones on high wave occurrences in Indonesian waters: Strengthening sea transportation safety management

Tropical cyclones can cause bad weather and high waves that can endanger maritime activities, especially in the waters of Indonesia, which is a maritime country. Understanding ocean wave climate characteristics and the effect of Tropical Cyclones (TCs) on high wave occurrences is important, particularly to ensure the safety of fisheries activities in Indonesian seas. We aim to do so by focusing on Indonesia's 11 Fisheries Management Areas (IFMAs) using descriptive and inferential statistics. Wind and wave data were taken from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF), namely ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) within the range of 42 years (1979–2020), whereas the TC data were from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS). We found that significant wave heights (SWHs) in the inner seas are strongly related to monsoonal wind fields. The maximum SWH occurred in northern Indonesian seas during December–February (DJF), while occurring in southern and inner seas between June–August (JJA). The highest extreme SWH and probability of exceedance (PE) for SWH >2 m were found in IFMAs facing the open ocean, such as Malacca Strait, Western Sumatra waters, Southern Java waters, Natuna Sea, Sulawesi Sea, and Northern Papua waters. We found that TCs activity in adjacent Indonesian waters could increase anomalous SWH occurrences. Positive SWH anomalies ranged from 0.1 to 0.4 m and varied depending on TC location and season. TC that forms in the following areas increase the PE for SWH >2 m: (1) Bay of Bengal: Western Sumatra waters (March–May, MAM) around 20%; (2) Western Pacific Ocean: Northern Papua waters (DJF) around 5%; (3) Northeastern Indian Ocean: Western Sumatra waters (DJF) about 3%; and (4) Western and Northern Australian waters: Southern Java waters (DJF) about 20%. The results of this study can serve as an early assessment for investigating wave climate characteristics and identifying the areas in Indonesian waters that are most susceptible to the impact of TCs, particularly in IFMAs. These findings hold significant value for managers and policy authorities, such as the Ministry of Transportation and the Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia. They can utilize this information to develop measures aimed at reducing vulnerabilities among marine resource users, specifically fishers, and improving fishing vessel safety. Additionally, these findings can be utilized to enhance advance warnings and forecasts, enabling marine managers to implement strategies that minimize the impact of extreme events and increase resilience in the face of ocean and coastal disasters.