Opportunities for the German gas grid by using synthetic fuels from an energy system perspective

The German government’s goals of climate neutrality by 2045 are exerting high pressure on the gas grids, as natural gas consumption has to cease. However, gas grids could be operated further by using synthetic energy carriers. As this heavily affects grid maintenance and future investment decisions, it is essential that operators gain clarity about the future of their assets. This paper applies the TIMES PanEU energy system model to examine opportunities for the gas grid arising from synthetic fuels from a system perspective. Therefore, the model is methodically enhanced by depicting infrastructures and conducting an integrative analysis of the gas grid. Up to 50% of the grids can be operated economically in case low-cost synthetic methane is available, low-cost hydrogen can allow around 2/3 of the gas transmission grids to be operated. However, since the building sector uses about 2/3 less gaseous fuels even in optimistic scenarios, the distribution grids are strongly deconstructed in all scenarios. From a system perspective, investments in the expansion of the gas grids therefore seem to be rather sunk costs in the long term, since a more or less strong dismantling appears to be inevitable, with permanently high fossil gas prices even accelerating this trend.