The understory microclimate in agroforestry now and in the future-a case study of Arabica coffee in its native range

Climate change is having a major impact on crop production and food security worldwide, and particularly so for smallholder farmers. As agroforestry is common with smallholder farmers, it is important to not only model the macroclimate, but also the microclimate that crops experience below the canopies. However, there are few highresolution spatiotemporal climate projections for forest understories, because of constraints related to the lack of i) development of models for downscaling global climate projections, ii) high-resolution gridded datasets of environmental factors influencing microclimate, and iii) spatially replicated in-situ microclimate measurements. We focused on a landscape in southwestern Ethiopia where Arabica coffee originated, and, in the present day, is commonly grown as a shade crop. We first examined the relative contribution of in-situ field measurements vs. GIS-derived estimates of vegetation and topographic features in explaining in-situ microclimate. Second, we used a statistical downscaling approach to obtain past and future microclimate maps at 30-meter spatial resolution for the part of the landscape that is covered by trees. Predictive models using in-situ variables performed equal to models with GIS variables, indicating that remote sensing data might substitute for in-situ field measurements. Vegetation and topographic features were both important in explaining microclimatic variation. Our spatiotemporal projections of the microclimate indicate that coffee farming might have to relocate to higher altitudes due to increasing temperatures, that vegetation might buffer the macroclimate at middle altitudes to some extent, and that decreasing trends in relative humidity at the beginning of the wet season might become problematic for coffee production. Taken together, our findings demonstrate that we can rely on remote sensing data to create microclimate maps in landscapes where in-situ field measurements are challenging, and we suggest how these microclimate projections can be used as a tool to promote climate-resilient agriculture at the local and landscape levels.